경영, 그 100 년 역사의 교훈 김 병도 ( 서울대 경영대 ) 02-880-8258 2009 년 3 월.

Presentation on theme: "경영, 그 100 년 역사의 교훈 김 병도 ( 서울대 경영대 ) 02-880-8258 2009 년 3 월."— Presentation transcript:

1 경영, 그 100 년 역사의 교훈 김 병도 ( 서울대 경영대 ) 02-880-8258 bxk@snu.ac.kr www.byungdo.com 2009 년 3 월

2 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University History of Business Management 17C 1902 Big Business 19291945196119721988? Scientific Management Government Regulation Marketing & Diversification Strategy & Social Change Competition & Restructuring Globalization & Knowledge What? Frederick Taylor Great Depression End of WW II Vietnam War Oil Shock End of Cold War

3 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Big Business (1776-1901)  Business environments  Industrial revolution  Colonization  Major developments in business  East India Company  Company Act of 1856 in England  Command-and-control in railroad industry (Daniel McCallum and Albert Fink)  Birth of modern retailers such as chain stores, department stores, and mail-order companies  Vertical integration  Key academic ideas  Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith (1776)  Friedrich List (1789-1846): Prussian answer to Adam Smith

4 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Source: International Monetary Fund (2007) RankCountryGDP Per Capita 1 2 3 4 5 11 22 34 175 176 177 178 179 Luxembourg Norway Qatar Iceland Ireland USA Japan South Korea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Congo Burundi Zimbabwe 104,673 83,922 72,849 63,830 59.924 45,845 34,312 19,751 206 195 166 128 55 Wealth of Nations

5 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 국부 ( 國富 ) 를 결정하는 변수  경제학의 가장 중요한 문제  ‘Wealth of Nations’ by Adam Smith (1776)  ‘How Rich Countries Got Rich, and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor’ by Erik Reinert (2007)  인류 역사에서 국가 간 부 ( 富 ) 의 차이가 현저히 나기 시작한 시점  산업혁명  식민지 개척

6

7 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Source: GDP Ranking by International Monetary Fund (2007) Aggressor Nations CountryGDP (million $)Ranking $2,659 (126) $19,751 (34)

8 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Scientific Management (1902-1931)  Business environments  Industry growth with mechanization  Stock market speculation  1927: First TV by Philo Farnsworth  Major developments in business  1908: Henry Ford’s Assembly line  1916: Clarence Saunder’s supermarket  1920s: Du Pont’s decentralization  1920s: GM’s market segmentation  Return on investment  Mass-market advertising booms  Key academic ideas  Scientific Management by Frederick Taylor (1911)  Participatory management by Mary Parker Follett (1927)  Hawthorn experiment by Elton Mayo and others (1927-1932)  Theory of the firm by Ronald Coase (1930)  Creative Destruction by Shumpeter (1883-1950)

9 주물용 철 운송 삽 작업 벽돌 쌓기 베어링 검사 금속 절삭 생산성 증감 3.8 배 3.7 배 2.9 배 3.5 배 2 배 이상 임금 증감 60% 증가 63% 증가 - 80-100% 증가 35% 증가 Productivity Growth by Taylorim

10 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Government Regulation (1932-1946)  Business environments  Stock crash and great depression at the beginning of 1930s  National Recovery Administration (1933-1935)  Antitrust pressures  Strikes and unions  World War II  Tennessee Valley Authority (government-run company)  Bretton Wood Conference creates World Band and IMF  Major developments in business  Operations research  1935: Alan Turing created “Universal Turing Machine” or the first computer.  Key academic ideas  The Modern Corporation and Private Property by Berle/Means (1933)  The Functions of the Executives by Chester Barnard (1938)  Hierarchy of Needs by Abraham Maslow (1942)

11 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Marketing & Diversification (1947-1959)  Business environments  Marshall Plan for European recovery  General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade  Korean war  Baby boom  Sputnik provokes enormous US government spending on science  Major developments in business  Royal Little’s conglomeration (1952)  Management by objectives  P&G: TV advertising and marketing research  Statistical quality control  Key academic ideas  Portfolio analysis by Harry Markowitz (1949)  The Practice of Management by Peter Drucker (1954)  Marketing Myopia by Theodore Levitt (1960)  Management Education: Carnegie and Ford Foundation (1958)  Administrative Behavior by Herbert Simon (1947)

12 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Strategy & Social Change (1960-1971)  Business environments  Civil rights movement  Affirmative Action  Environmental Protection Agency  Vietnam war  Major developments in business  McDonald’s franchising  ITT’s portfolio planning  Marketing’s 4 P  Conglomerate acquisitions  Key academic ideas  Theory Y by Duglas McGregor (1962)  Strategy and Structure by Alfred Chandler (1962)  A Behavioral Theory of the Firm by Cyert/March (1963)  Capital asset pricing model  Agency theory by Jensen and Meckling (1970)

13 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Competition & Restructuring (1972-1987)  Business environments  Oil embargo  Environmental movement  Stagflation  Japanese and German competitiveness  Consumer movement  Consulting booms  Deregulation  Major developments in business  Brand extensions and product proliferation  Corporate culture  Quality circles  Total Quality Control, Just-in-Time Delivery, Lean manufacturing  Steady growth in MBA graduates  Pension fund  Leveraged Buyout, KKK  Key academic ideas  In Search of Excellence by Peters/Waterman (1982)  Competitive Advantage by Michael Porter (1985)

14 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Market Share of GM versus Japanese Automakers in US Year Market Share GM Japan

15 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Globalization & Knowledge (1988-Present)  Business environments  Cold War ends  North American Free Trade Agreement  Growth in Asia  Major developments in business  GE’s boundary-less organization  Internet/Intranets/Extranets  Corporate Downsizing: GE’s Jack Welch  ERP, SCM, CRM, 6 sigma  Derivatives  Strategic alliances  Flexible organization  Sabanes-Oxley Act (2002)  Key academic ideas  The Fifth Disciplines by Peter Senge (1990)  Core Competence by Prahalad and Hamel (1990)  The Balanced Scorecard by Kaplan and Norton (1992)  Corporate vision and goals by Collins and Porras (1994)  Process reengineering by Champy and Hammer

16 2008 KOF Index of Globalization KoreaJapanChina Economic Social Political Total 70 55 23 46 80 53 29 51 66 64 10 43 2008 KOF Index for Top Asia 3

17

18

19 Words for Current Period?

20 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University  Poor countries are poor because they lack:  Land and natural resources  Physical and human capital  Access to the latest technology  South Korea and North Korea  Migration as an experiment  GDP per capita: Haiti = $1,291, Germany = $34,181  US immigrants (self-employed): Haiti = $18,900, West Germany = $27,300  US immigrants (salaried): Haiti = $10,900, West Germany = $21,900 Alternative Economic Theories

21 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 남북한 경제력 비교 인구 지능지수 구리 매장량 명목 GNI 일인당 GNI 무역총액 4,845 만 106 290 만톤 902 조원 1,863 만원 7,283 억 달러 2,320 만 104 5.6 만톤 24 조원 107 만원 29 억 달러 지표남한북한 자료 : 한국은행 (2007), 대한광업진흥공사 (2006) 석회석 매장량 1,000 억톤 85 억톤

22 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Migration as an Experiment Germany $34,181 Haiti $1,291 Self-employed: Germany = $27,300 Haiti = $18,900 Salaried: Germany = $21,900 Haiti = $10,900

23 Institutional Environment Entrepreneurship Wealth of Nations Making Poor Nations Rich: Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development Edited by Benjamin Powell (2008)

24

25 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 기업가정신과 제도 (institution)  산업혁명이 유럽에서 시작된 이유  명나라의 기술력  미국이 산업혁명을 완성한 이유  민간자본 위주의 투자  철도산업의 중요성  제도의 중요성

26 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University The Most Influential Figures in American History Alexander Hamilton (5) John D. Rockefeller (11) Henry Ford (14) Andrew Carnegie (20) Walt Disney (26) Eli Whitney (27) J. P. Morgan (37) Bill Gates (54) P. T. Barnum (67) James Gordon Bennett (69) Sam Walton (72) Cyrus McCormick (73) William Randolph Hearst (80) George Eastman (94) Source: The Atlantic (2006)

27 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Index of Economic Freedom (The Heritage Foundation, 2009) TOP 10: Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, US, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom Korea (40), Japan (19) India (123), China (132), North Korea (179)

28 Economic Freedom and Per Capita Income

29 Economic Freedom and Income Share of the Poorest 10%

30 Economic Freedom and Life Expectancy

31 Economic Freedom and Corruption

32 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Index of Economic Freedom (2009) 한국의 경제자유지수를 올리려면 노동시장의 유연성을 확보 해야 한다. Business Freedom Trade Freedom Fiscal Freedom Government Size Monetary Freedom Investment Freedom Financial Freedom Property Rights Freedom from Corruption Labor Freedom 90.4 70.2 70.4 72.5 80.0 70.0 60.0 70.0 51.0 46.4 64.3 73.2 74.9 65.0 74.0 48.8 49.1 44.0 40.3 61.3 Component IndexKoreaAverage

33 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University  Productive entrepreneurship  Unproductive or rent-seeking entrepreneurship  Lobbying regulators or legislators in favors  Suing in the courts to harm competitors  Conducting military activities  Monopolizing behavior  Taking downstream profits Bad Entrepreneurship

34

35 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University  The introduction of a new good  One with which consumers are not yet familiar  A new quality of a good  The introduction of a new method of production  The opening of a new market  The conquest of a new source of supply of raw materials or half-manufactured goods, again irrespective of whether this source already exists or whether it has first to be created  The carrying out of the new organization of any industry, like the creation of a monopoly position (for example through trustification) or the breaking up of a monopoly position Schumpeter’s Entrepreneur

36 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Water power Textiles Iron Petrochemicals Electronics Aviation Electricity Chemicals Internal combus- tion engine Steam Rail Steel Semiconductors Fiber optics Genetics Software FIRST WAVE FOURTH WAVE THIRD WAVESECOND WAVE FIFTH WAVE 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 60 years?40 years50 years55 years Schumpeter’s long economic waves are shortening, from 50-60 years to around 30-40 years. Schumpeter’s Wave Accelerate

37 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 좋은 기업가정신의 예  다른 사람에게 혁신의 기회를 제공하는 ‘ 혁신 ’ 이 가장 훌륭한 혁신이다.  마이크로프로세서, 개인용 컴퓨터, MS 윈도우  프레데릭 테일러의 기여  현대 경영학의 발견  헨리 포드의 혁신

38 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 진보와 보수  기업가정신의 결과 발생하는 빈부의 격 차는 어떻게 해결할 것인가 ?  진보와 보수  밀튼 프리드먼, 폴 크루그먼  기부문화의 중요성  복지국가

39 World Income Inequality Unequal CountriesEqual Countries

40 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Source: Murray (2003), Human Accomplishment Lotka Curve Performance of PGA Professionals (1991-2000)

41 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University 2004 년 제 46 회 사법시험 합격자 총 합격인원 : 1009 명 서울대 출신 : 339 명 (34%) 서울대 법대 : 192 명 서울대 비법대 : 147 명 특기사항 : 최연소 합격자와 최고 득점자가 여성 최연소 합격자가 서울대 경영대 2 학년 학생 Institution and Income

42 US Individual Income Tax (Top Bracket Rate)

43 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Source: International Monetary Fund (2007) RankDonor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Warren Buffett Bill and Melinda Gates John D. Rockefeller William Hewlett Gordon and Betty Moore Henry Ford and son Andrew Carnegie Joan Kroc Susan Buffett Walter Annenberg Largest Donors in American History Source Berkshire Hathaway Microsoft Standard Oil Hewlett-Packard Intel Ford Motor Co. U.S. Steel Widow of McDonald founder Late wife of Buffett TV Guide Gifts $43.5 $30 $7 $6 $5 $4.3 $3 $2.6 $2.5 $2

44

45 경영역사 Copyright  2009 by Byung-Do Kim, Seoul National University Q & A