세계의 정보통신서비스 기술과 시장전망 Arthur D. Little 서 정 식.

Presentation on theme: "세계의 정보통신서비스 기술과 시장전망 Arthur D. Little 서 정 식."— Presentation transcript:

1 세계의 정보통신서비스 기술과 시장전망 Arthur D. Little 서 정 식

2 Recent Mobile Handset Sales Trend
Mega Trend Recent Mobile Handset Sales Trend Source: Lehman Brothers (Sept 2001) (million units) Anticipated slowing subscriber growth in key market Weak replacement demand Inventory adjustment Market Dynamics Triggers User Vendor Key trend Unexpected high penetration levels anticipated slowing subscriber growth in key markets Lowering replacement demands Reduction of handset subsidy Economic overhang operators' refocus on financial performance reduced usage and spend patterns of existing customers increased churn bad debt levels delays in the ramp of data services net additional

3 Net Increase Rate IT service/product Demand
Mega Trend Net Increase Rate IT service/product Demand Scenario 2: rebound to similar level to last years moving average Scenario 1: rebound to similar level to two years ago Scenario 3: rebound but not recover to last years’ growth rate Scenario 4: not yet 말 01말

4 Worldwide Subscriber Growth by Region
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Worldwide Subscriber Growth by Region Thousand person

5 Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend
Source: Lehman Brothers (Sept 2001) Number of mobile subscribers vs. penetration rate (FY 00) Cellular penetration(%) Philippines Thailand Malaysia Eastern Europe China South America USA Japan France South Korea Australia Germany UK Italy Taiwan Switzerland Netherlands Hong Kong Finland Singapore No. of cellular subscribers(m) This figure shows the total number of new subscribers (and implies the total number of handsets from new subscriber additions) available from all of the regions in the world between now and the time that region reaches its “point of saturation.” New Subscribers Through Market Saturation by Region (W.Europe) 41 (N. America) 107 (Africa) 370 (CALA) 258 (Asia/Pacific) 1,890 (Middle East) 106 (E.Europe) 196

6 Worldwide Mobile Handset Sales Trend and Forecast
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Worldwide Mobile Handset Sales Trend and Forecast Net Additions Replacement (million units) Industry analyst predict that the downturn is a temporary phenomenon caused by oversupply of handsets, decreases in operator’s handset subsidies as well as delays in next-generation deployment Based on research analyst consensus, the worldwide mobile handset market is expected to grow with CAGR of 15% annually by increase of mobile replacement caused by network and service upgrade as well as fast growth of China market ADL Comment

7 Anticipated GPRS Phones in the 2H 2001
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend GPRS Launch Plans Anticipated GPRS Phones in the 2H 2001 Country Spain Italy UK australia Greece Swizerland Sweden China Taiwan Netherlands Singapore Austria Belgium Hong Kong Poland Finland Turkey Australia Portugal Germany Germany.UK Region W.Europe Asia/Pacific E.Europe Operator Airtel Blu BT Cellnet C&W Optus Cosmote diAx Europolitan Fujian Mobile KG Telecom Libertel Vodafone M1 max mobil Mobikom Mobistar Panafon PCCW PTL Centertel Radiolinja Smar Tone Sonera tele.ring Telefonica Telsim Telstra TIM (Telecom Italia) TMN T-Mobile Vodafone Network Launch Date May-01 Dec-00 Jun-00 Apr-00 Mar-01 Sep-00 Mar-00 Aug-00 Sep-0 Apr-01 Nov-00 Feb-01 Oct-00 2Q-01 May-00 Jan-01 Commercial Service Launch Date Jun-01 TBD May-01 Sep-00 Oct-01 Aug-01 3Q/4Q-01 Jul-01 Nov-00 Jul-00 Summer-01 Vendor Alcatel Ericsson Matsushita (Panasonic) Matsushita (Trium) Motorola Nokia Philips Sagem Samsung Siemens Model 702 R502 T39 R68 GD95 Geo GPRS Mondo P73891 Accompli 008 Accompli 009 V.120 V.66 Talkabout 192 8310 6310 Fisco 610 Fisco 611 Fisco 612 MC 959 SGH-Q100 MC 35 Intro. Date Q4 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Mid-2001 Q1 2001 Available Source: Saloman Smith Barney (2001)

8 Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend
2G ▶ 흑백/small LCD ▶ 저속 Data Rate ▶ 브라우저 탑재 단말 ▶ Wide-Color LCD ▶ GPS내장(MSM3300) ▶ Bluetooth 내장 ▶ 디지털카메라 탑재 ▶ Java탑재 단말기 등장 2.5G 3G ▶ USIM 모듈 탑재 ▶ TFT LCD ▶ OS 탑재 단말기 상용화 (WinCE, EPOC, Palm OS, Linux) ▶ 고성능CPU/대용량저장 4G ▶ 가상현실 ▶ 자연어 인식 ▶ 흘림체 인식  단말 주변장치의 개발 및 관련 기술의 발달에 따라 단말기 성능의 고도화  단말기 설계 전략 : 일체형 단말기, 모듈형 단말기, 전용단말기  CDMA모듈 탑재: 음성기능 + 무선인터넷기능구현  디지털카메라/GPS/스마트카드모듈 탑재 : 화상통신/위치서비스고도화/M-Commerce 보안 문제 해결  반도체 기술 발달 : CPU고성능화, 저장용량 확대  Display 기술발달 : Wide LCD  Color LCD  TFT LCD (고선명 화질 구현)  배터리 기술의 발전 (Lithium Polymer, 연료전지 등) : 장시간통화, 경량화 가능

9 Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend
구 분 스마트폰/WAP폰 PDA 3G Laptop 3G Web Tablet Multi. 단말기 Input Touchpad Keypad Keypad, Pen Voice Keypad Voice Keypad, Pen Touchpad Keypad, Pen Touchpad, Voice Feature 휴대전화보다 약간 큼 소형 輕薄형 기술발전에 따라 소형/경량화 잡지 크기 형태 카메라, 고선명/고화질 비디오스크린 Power Consumption 낮음 낮음 중간 낮음 (Always-on) 중간 Display Full Color Small, Flat Full Color Full Color High Resolution Full Color Flat Panel Full Color Collapsible Screen Graphic 제한적 가능(2001) 가능 가능 가능 Video 애니메이션 수준 가능 가능 불가능 가능 Voice 가능 가능 가능 가능 가능 Time to emergence 2000~2005 2000~2006 2004 2004 2005~2010 Source : UMTS Forum ’00. 10

10 Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend
서비스 다양화 Intranet Telemetry Fleet Management Mobile Office VOD, AOD Network Game MBS (Multimedia Broadcasting System) 캐릭터/벨소리 다운로드 게임 다운로드 노래방 서비스 Entertainment 동영상 뉴스/스포츠 중계 종합위치정보 서비스(LBS) 교통정보(동영상) e-Book 뉴스 주변지역정보/ 교통정보(Text/음성) PIMS Information UMS (Unified Messaging Service) MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service) SMS /Chatting (n.TOP연계만 가능) Communi cation P2P(Person to Person) 쇼핑 IBS(종합금융서비스 :전자지불/결제 등) 주식거래 예약/복권 계좌조회/이체 M-Commerce 향 후 현 재 구 분 Terminal 다양화 Handheld PC Size & Weight Mobile Handset Voice Terminal Voice+Data Voice Smartphone Multimedia Phone CD-MP3 Digital Camera Electronic Games Multimedia Devices Data Devices PDAs Laptops Target Devices PC Memory Power Extendable PIMs 기능 보완 Computing기능 (CPU처리능력, Memory용량)보완 멀티미디어 기능보완 진화 통신기능보완

11 Emerging Mobile communication market forecast
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Emerging Mobile communication market forecast (Unit: Thousands) Source: ETRI 2000, Dataquest 2000, Garther Consulting, Roland Berger Analysis, Feb.2001, Forrester Research ,Samsung Electronics Data, Industry Expert Interview, ADL Analysis 32% 58% 12% 73% 86% 166% CAGR