The Past, Present and Future of Fisheries Oceanography:

Presentation on theme: "The Past, Present and Future of Fisheries Oceanography:"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Past, Present and Future of Fisheries Oceanography:
Refashioning a Responsible Fisheries Science

2 Contents Introduction Reinventing resource management
Merging science and management back into fish trafficking System science as an alternative Critical thinking, observational data and presumptions Principal features of today’s major fisheries and habitat disasters Defining ecosystems by their production patterns The objective of science is to forecast, not just hindcast Someday...... Getting the questions right Scenarios from the past for the future ‡forecast [fɔ́ːrkæ̀st, -kɑ̀ːst] n. ① 예상, 예측. ② 예보. ┈┈•a business ∼ 경기 예측. ① ┈┈•a [the] weather ∼ 일기 예보. ② ㉺ ∼er ―n. ‡forecast [fɔ́ːrkæ̀st, -kɑ̀ːst] vt.,vi. (p., pp. -cast, ∼ed) ① 예상[예측]하다. ② (날씨를) 예보하다(predict). ③ 예고[전조]가 되다. ④ 미리 계획하다. ┈┈•It rained as was ∼. 예보대로 비가 왔다. ② ‡hind 1 [haind] a. (∼er; ∼(er) most) 후부의, 후방의. [opp.] fore. [SYN.] ⇨ BACK. ┈┈•the ∼ legs (짐승의) 뒷다리. ┈┈•∼ wheels 뒷바퀴. ♣on one's ∼ legs 분연히 일어나; (우스개) 일어서서: get up on one's ∼ legs 일어서다, (사람 앞에서) 일어서서 지껄이다. Hind 2 n. (pl. ∼, ∼s) 암사슴(특히 3살 이상의 고라니)([cf.] hart, stag); 〖어류〗 (남대서양의) 농어과 능성어류의 바닷물고기. Hind 3 n. 【Sc.】 (농업 기술에 뛰어난) 머슴; 농장 관리인; (미국고어) 시골뜨기, 순박한 사람.

3 Introduction Symposium purpose
To assess available fisheries management tools To suggest solutions that would help renovate fisheries science Conventional fisheries science as implemented in related resource management has failed! Why? weak population assessment tools little of what is known about any fish or the related ecosystem ⇛ El Niño?; Regime Shift? Etc. Strong external causes of the initial declines Market-driven greed Fishing per se is not where the major profits are made in fish trade

4 question The question is not why fisheries are in collapse, so much as what can be done about it. Resolve the control over catch rates, and the allocation of fishes, and stabilize fisheries: MSY & Equilibrium population modeling theories Continuous disequilibrium in nature; steady state The traditional concern fish trade based on laisses faire capitalism, free market structures, and the resulting dwindling resources with escalating values How to control throughput at the marketplace To understand fisheries variability – + Full knowledge of the environmental forcing and ecological responses within which fisheries operate laissez-faire, laisser- [lèiseifɛ́əːr] n. 【F.】 무간섭[방임]주의(noninterference). laissez-faire, laisser- [lèiseifɛ́əːr] a. 무간섭주의의, 자유 방임의. †dwindle [dwíndl] v. ―vi. ① 『∼/ +부/ +전+명』 줄다, 작아지다, 축소[감소]되다(diminish). ② (명성 따위가) 약화되다; 쇠하다, 못쓰게 되다, (품질이) 저하되다, 허락하다(away; down). ―vt. 『∼ +목/ +목+전+명』 ┅을 작게[적게] 하다, 축소[감소]시키다. ┈┈•the island's dwindling population 섬의 줄어드는 인구.―vi. ① ┈┈•The airplane ∼d to a speck. 비행기는 작아져서 이내 하나의 점으로 되었다. ┈┈•Her hopes gradually ∼ away. 그녀의 희망(希望)은 점차 사라졌다.② ┈┈•The failure ∼d his reputation to nothing. 그 실패는 그의 명성을 무로 돌려 버렸다.―vt. ♣∼ away into nothing 점점 줄어서 없어지다. ♣∼ down to 줄어서[쇠하여] ┅이 되다. ㉺dwindler [dwíndlər] ―n. (영양 부족으로) 발육[성장]이 나쁜 사람[동물]. throughput [ɵrúːpùt] n. 처리량(⑴ 일정시간 내에 가공되는 원료의 양. ⑵ 〖컴퓨터〗 일정시간 내에 처리되는 일의 양).

5 Reinventing resource management
The social impetus of cod fishing Newfoundland cod – recent fiasco An indictment against arrogant science There need to be many changes… Definitions of problems associated with the science Natural variations of ecosystems over which humans have no control The rampant lack of concern over downstream process by land developers create unnecessary problems Communications and cooperative interactions between concerned natural and physical science communities, fishermen, marketers, and fisheries managers to affect rational resource exploitation Local subsistence fishing cultures - lost General need for attitude adjustment - new fisheries science and fishermen’s direct involvement fiasco [fiǽskou] n. (pl. ∼(e)s ) 【It.】 (연극․연주․야심적 기획 따위의) 큰 실수[실패]. ┈┈•The party was a ∼ [ended in ∼ ]. 그 파티는 큰 실패였다[로 끝났다]. rampant [rǽmpənt] a. ① (사람․짐승이) 과격한, 사나운, 광포한, 날뛰는. ② (잡초 등이) 무성한, 우거진. ③ (병․범죄․소문 등이) 만연하는, 성한, 대유행의; 마구 퍼지는. ④ 〖문장(紋章)〗 뒷발로 선; 〖건축〗 한 쪽의 홍예받이가 높은(아치 따위의). ♣a lion ∼ 〖문장(文狀)〗 뒷발로 일어선 사자. ㉺∼ly ―ad. exploitation [èksplɔitéiʃən] n. U ① 이용; 개발; 개척; 채굴, 벌채. ② 사리를 위한 이용, 불법이용; 착취. [관련어] exploit2 ―v. subsistence [səbsístəns] n. U 생존; 현존, 존재; 생활, 호구지책, 생계; 〖철학〗 자존(自存). involvement [invɑ́lvmənt / -vɔ́lv-] n. ① U 말려듦; 휩쓸려듦, 관련, 연루, 연좌(in). ② 포함. ③ C 난처; 어려움; (재정) 곤란. impetus [ímpətəs] n. ① U (움직이고 있는 물체의) 힘, 추진력, 운동량, 관성(慣性). ② C (정신적인) 기동력(機動力), 유인, 자극. ♣give [lend] (an) ∼ to ┅을 자극[촉진]하다. indictment [indáitmənt] n. U 기소, 고발; C 기소(고발)장. ┈┈•bring in an ∼ against a person 아무를 기소하다. arrogant [ǽrəgənt] a. 거드럭거리는, 거만[오만]한, 건방진(haughty). ┈┈•assume an ∼ attitude 오만한 태도를 취하다. ㉺∼ly ―ad. self-serving [sélfsə́ːrviŋ] a. (사람이) 자기 잇속만 차리는, 이기적인 convention [kənvénʃən] n.① (정치·종교 따위의) 집회, 대표자 회의, 정기 총회; 「집합적」 대회 참가자, 대표자(집합체로 생각할 때는 단수, 구성 요소일 때는 복수 취급); 〖영국사〗 컨벤션(1660년 및 1688년 국왕의 소집 없이 열린 영국의 의회); 【미국】 (노동 조합·종교·교육 단체 따위의) 연차(年次) 총회; 【미국】 (정당의) 전국[당] 대회. ② 소집, 협정, 약정, 협약, 합의(agreement); 국제 협정, 협상, 가조약. ③ C,U 풍습, 관례; 인습. [SYN.] ⇨ HABIT. ④ (무대 따위의) 약속; (카드놀이 따위의) 규칙, 규약. ┈┈•a ∼ hall (호텔 따위의) 회의장.① ┈┈•∼ tour 관광을 겸한 회의 참석 여행. ┈┈•a postal ∼ 우편 협정.② ┈┈•social ∼ 사회적 관습.③ ┈┈•stage ∼s 무대 위에서의 약속.④ [관련어] convene ―v. reward [riwɔ́ːːrd] n. ① U 보수, 포상; C 현상금; 사례금(for). ② U 보답, 응보. ┈┈•No ∼ without toil. (격언) 고생 끝에 낙(樂). ② ♣gone to one's ∼ 죽어서 천국에 간[있는].♣in ∼ for [of] ┅의 상으로, ┅에 보답하여. reward [riwɔ́ːrd] v.―vt. ① 『∼+목/+목+전+명』 ┅에게 보답하다; 보수를[상을] 주다(for; with).② (행위에) 앙갚음하다, 보복하다, 벌하다. ―vi. 보답하다. ┈┈•be properly ∼ed for one's effort 노력에 합당한 보수를 받다. ―vt. ① ㉺∼able ―a. ㉺∼ing ―a. 득이 되는, 할 보람이 있는, (┅할 만한) 가치가 있는. ㉺∼less ―a. 보수 없는, 헛수고의. embed [imbéd] vt. (-dd-) (물건을) 끼워넣다, 묻다; (마음·기억 등에) 깊이 새겨 두다. ┈┈•a thorn ∼ded in the finger. expose [ikspóuz] vt.① 『+목+전+명』 (햇볕·바람·비 따위에) 쐬다, 맞히다, 노출시키다(to); (공격·위험 따위에) 몸을 드러내다(to); (환경 따위에) 접하게 하다(to). ② (죄·비밀 따위를) 폭로하다, 까발리다(disclose), ┅의 가면을 벗기다(unmask). ③ 보이다; 진열하다, 팔려고 내놓다. [SYN.] ⇨ SHOW. ④ (계획·의도 따위를) 표시하다, 발표하다, 밝히다. ⑤ 〖역사〗 (어린애 등을) 집 밖에 버리다. ⑥ 〖사진〗 (필름을) 노출하다, 감광시키다. ⑦ 『+목+전+명』 세상의 웃음거리가 되게 하다. ⑧ 〖카드놀이〗 (종종 룰에 반하여 패 를) 까놓다. ┈┈•be ∼d to actual spoken English 실제의 영어회화에 접하게 되다.① ┈┈•∼ a secret.② ┈┈•His foolish action ∼d him to ridicule. 그의 우행은 웃음거리가 되었다.⑦ ♣be ∼d to (danger) (위험)에 노출되다. ♣∼ oneself to ┅에 몸을 드러내다, 노출하다: ∼ oneself to misunderstanding [mockery] 오해[멸시]를 받다. exposé [èkspouzéi] n.【F.】 (추한 사실 등의) 폭로, 적발, 들추어냄; 제시, 논술.㉺exposer ―n. [관련어] exposure, exposition ―n. jettison [dʒétəsən, -zən] n. U 〖해상보험〗 투하(投荷). jettison [dʒétəsən, -zən] vt. (긴급시에 중량을 줄이기 위해 배·항공기에서) 짐을 버리다; (비유) (방해물·부담 등을) 버리다.

6 Merging science & management
Observation drive good decisions Best available science Ecosystem-based resource management. The education of new generation of fisheries resource scientists A short history of population assessment modeling Predator-prey and habitat complexity Ocean climate and fisheries Tides and other natural factors vs simplified behavior models The ecological cascade Quantification techniques: tools, not ends unto themselves Stakeholder’s objectives differ Fish trafficking trafficker [trǽfikəːr] n. ① 거래업자, 상인.② (뒷구멍으로) 교섭을 하는 사람; 음모가(家)(schemer).③ 마약 거래상(drug dealer).

7 System science as an alternative
Applied economics of nature Human withdrawals and inputs human enterprises (Lubchenko. 1998) Transform the land and sea Alter the major biogeochemical cycles Add or remove species The fisheries ecosystem Resource economics and ecology In-depth knowledge + Real-time cost accounting: all resources All resources used in basic fish capture, preservation methods transport and preparations for market outlets + (pollutants) Conventional market-driven economic decision-making Cost of non-renewable; losses of support system Costs to catch vs. landed value – exceed cur-off points More is lost than is gained

8 System science as an alternative
Step one: defining ‘the problem’ Slivert (1993) size-spectra models Size-structured simulation models Ecosystem dynamics and their responses to environmental factors Size-structured models - estuarine and continental shelf systems Energy flow; size spectrum from small to large Multi-stable complex behavior Not answer all questions Essential tool Each resource populations’ growth and reproduction is optimized ‘Harvesting’ vs ‘mining’ – self sustaining populations

9 System science as an alternative
Step one: defining ‘the problem’ What do we need to know? Basic survival requirements of each species’ developmental stages Life history survivorship problem Larval fish survival (S) Total Natural mortality (Z), Fishing Mortality (M) Survival: 1 – (Z+M) ≠ S

10 System science as an alternative
1. Step one: defining ‘the problem’ ; 2 What do we need to know? The microcosm – the critical period hypotheses Reinvention of the early life-history survival Modern stock enhancement and put-and-take fisheries science Prey (food) production - physical-biological interfaces Painstaking, trial-and-error lab works – life histories The ‘critical period’ concepts  Lasker’s ‘Stability-survival hypothesis’ ‘Lasker Window’ (Bakun, 1996) Tools : BatFISH; BIONESS Plankton samplers; Owen’s microsampler Ocean dynamics well beyond usual observations, or expectations Each sample cast or sample interval was unique!

11 System science as an alternative
1. Step one: defining ‘the problem’ 2. What do we need to know? 3. The microcosm The macrocosm Ecosystem thinking Integrate several trophic components + competitor fish sp. + bottom-up trophic components ; analogy of chemical transfers Fish population respond to climatic patterns, with or without fishing: equilibrium?? The assumption of persistence (i.e. equilibrium) has no place in population biology, fisheries assessments, or probable anywhere outside a lower division classroom.

12 System science as an alternative
1. Step one: defining ‘the problem’ 2. What do we need to know? 3. The microcosm 4. The macrocosm So – what is the question? What causes these ecosystem variations? Description and measurement of environmental conditions that permit survival (mortality) of various species Species interactions + Cascades of energy and materials Final conclusion Time and space scales Interactions between species - scales Trends and regime shifts – behavior and age distributions Survival at early life-history stages Mortality No single measure - decision-making

13 System science as an alternative
Early Life History Survival issues Ocean Science in Support of Living Resources Programme (OSLR) Climate-Ocean Resources variability Field criteria and assays GLOBEC Reach beyond zooplankton dynamics to fisheries LME BEP …

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16 Critical thinking, observational data, and presumptions
After early life-history issues, what are the basic questions? The fisheries efficiency problem

17 Lesson A consequence of fleet expansions:
As fishers upgrade their technologies, costs decline up to a point, after which economic efficiencies may decline. Quality of life at sea may improve, but durations of time spent at sea usually increase. There is not enough of any resource of ‘sustained growth’

18 Principal features of today’s major fisheries and habitat disasters
Human population issues Misuse of habitat, development’s role in fishery declines Upstream, downstream

19 Defining ecosystems by their production patterns
Is the question really how much fish is there? Open systems – ocean habitats, and species mobility

20 The objective of science is to forecast, not just to hindcast
Ongoing success stories

21 Someday… Market-based management
Information needs of the new fisheries science

22 Getting the questions right
Fisheries vary – and management can work, Now what?

23 Definition of the fishery system, and identifying all external physical forcing is imperative to understanding ecosystem function and sustainability Ecosystem stability is neither attainable, nor desirable; We need true-time environmental monitoring, as well as accounting of production costs Socially acceptable management will necessarily involve the re-integration of fisherfolk and scientists

24 Cascading food webs and bottom-up ecologically correct production models need to meet.
Who is in charge? Don’t waste resources! Incentives!

25 Scenarios from the past for the future