WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME) WMO South Asian Climate Outlook Forum 13~15 Apr 2010, Pune 안녕하십니까 한국기상청 최정희입니다. 제가 발표할 내용은 WMO 장기예보 다중모델앙상블 선도센터에 대한 소개와 앙상블 예측 그리고 장기예보 선도센터의 활동에 관한 내용을 말씀 드리고자 합니다. Good morning/afternoon. I am CHOI Jeonghee of the Korea Meteorological Administration. In this presentation, I will give an overview of the WMO LC-LRFMME, forecasts using multi-model ensembles and other activities of the WMO LC-LRFMME. CHOI Jeonghee Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration

Contents Background and History of WMO LC-LRFMME Function and Goal of WMO LC-LRFMME Global Producing Centre (GPC) Data WMO LC-LRFMME Products and Activities Summary 발표 순서는 다음과 같습니다. The presentation will proceed as follows. I will start with the background and history of the Centre, its function and goal, GPC data, and the Centre’s products and activities.

Background Currently, LRF model forecasts are under-utilized due to the proliferation of standards It would be quite useful if GPCs could share their forecasts with others Linkage among GPCs and RCCs is needed to to ensure wider and more effective use of forecasts GPC • • • RCC NMHS 전 세계적으로 전지구 장기예측자료 생산센터에서 제공되는 장기예측자료를 사용하기 위해서는 각 생산센터를 통해야만 하는 시간과 과정상 불편하고, 자료형태가 달라 매우 번거로웠습니다. It would be quite useful if GPCs shared their forecasts with other countries. Seasonal and long-range prediction skill in particular stand to benefit tremendously. Improvements in skill, in turn, will likely contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, and to better socio-economic planning. Unfortunately, It is neither easy nor convenient to try to use long-range prediction data from the many GPCs around the world, given the additional time and procedures required in applying for the data with the individual GPCs, in addition to the proliferation of standards used by the individual GPCs. Seasonal and long-range prediction skills are more likely to improve if the Lead Centre for LRF MME combines the forecasts from the many GPCs. Improved skill will likely contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as to better socio-economic planning.

Status of Progress WMO GPC meeting (October, Korea) - KMA highlighted the need for LC-LRFMME. 2005 WMO CCI meeting (November, China) - KMA outlined the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. The joint ET of DPFS acknowledged the need for a Lead Centre(s) to collect globally available LRF for building MMEs (April, England). 2006 KMA, in conjunction with NCEP, submitted its Lead Centre application form to WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November, Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. 2007 LC-LRFMME established its data exchange system (June). WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September, Korea) - The Workshop further defined the need for and functions of LC-LRFMME 이러한 불편함을 해소하기 위하여, 한국 기상청에서는 2005년에 처음으로 GPC와 사용자간의 허브 역할을 담당할 수 있는 WMO 장기예보 선도센터의 설립을 제안한 후, 지속적인 노력을 통해 2009년 4월 미국기상청과 공동으로 설립을 최종 인준 받게 되어 공식적인 활동을 수행하게 되었습니다. As a way to address such inconvenience, KMA suggested in 2005 that a WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast should be established to serve as a hub between GPCs and users. KMA’s sustained efforts bore fruit in April 2009, when official endorsement of a Lead Centre jointly sponsored by KMA and NCEP was granted. WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April, China). - The Meeting redefined the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME 2008 WMO CBS-XIV (April, Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. 2009

(Research team of LC-LRFMME) CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ ET-ELRF Improvement APCC (Research team of LC-LRFMME) GPC • • • RCC RCOFs NMHS RCCs CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ ET-ELRF (Advisory body) WMO Lead Centre for LRF MME 현재 WMO 장기예보 다중모델앙상블 선도센터를 통해 전세계의 기후센터(RCC, RCOF, GPC, NMHS 등)에서는 아주 편리하게 전세계 현업모델에서 생산하고 있는 우수한 장기예측자료를 활용할 수 있게 되었습니다. Climate centers worldwide now have convenient access to the best operational global long-range forecast products through the WMO LC-LRFMME, which has made it possible to provide the right information to the right users at the right time to help them make the right decisions. • GPC : WMO Global Producing Center • APCC : APEC Climate Center • RCC : WMO Regional Climate Center • RCOF : Regional Climate Outlook Forum • NMHS : National Meteorological Hydrological Service

Functions & Goal Goal of LC-LRFMME Primary Functions · Maintain a repository of documentation for the system configuration of all GPC systems; · Collect an agreed set of forecast data from GPCs; · Display GPCs forecasts in a standard format → Standardization; · Promote research and experience in MME techniques and provide guidance; · Based on comparison among different models, provide feedback to GPCs about the models’ performance; · Redistribute digital forecast data for those GPCs that allow it The goal of the Lead Centre is to provide a conduit for sharing model data for long-term climate predictions and to develop a well-calibrated MME system for mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable, or to maximize the benefit from favorable climate conditions. WMO 장기예보 선도센터는 전세계 GPC 자료를 수집하고 일정한 형태로 표준화를 수행하며, 홈페이지를 통해 관련 정보를 제공하는 등 여러 기능들을 담당하고 있습니다. 이는 결과적으로, 전세계에서 표준화된 자료 활용을 통해 다중모델앙상블 등과 같은 장기예측기술의 향상에 최종 목적을 두고 있습니다. The WMO LC-LRFMME has a wide range of functions, including collecting real-time forecast data from GPCs around the world, display and provide these data in a standardized format, and making available related information and products through its website. In essence, its ultimate goal is to improve long-range forecast skill such as MMEs through worldwide use of standardized data. www.themegallery.com

(Western Coast of South America) Regional Climate Outlook Forums SEECOF (Southeastern Europe) FOCRAII (Asia) CCOF (Caribbean) PRESAO (West Africa) SASCOF (South Asia) FCCA (Central America) GHACOF (Greater Horn of Africa) PRESAC (Central Africa) 보시는 그림은 전세계에 분포하고 있는 지역기후포럼을 나타내고 있습니다. This slide shows regional climate outlook forums worldwide, which the WMO LC-LRFMME supports. PICOF (Pacific Islands) SARCOF (Southern Africa) WCSACOF (Western Coast of South America) SSACOF (Southeast of South America)

Access to GPC Data 이 그림은 전세계의 GPC 분포를 보여주고 있으며, WMO가 지정한 GPC는 총 12개입니다. 브라질 CPTEC을 제외한 11개의 GPC 자료를 수집하고 있으며, 이 중에서 남아프리카 CPTEC 자료는 확인 중이라 현재는 총 10개의 GPC 자료를 표준화하고 있습니다. This slide shows the 12 WMO-designated Global Producing Centers around the world. With the exception of Brazil’s CPTEC, LC-LRFMME is collecting data from 11 of these GPCs. At the moment, confirmation is pending on the data from the GPC in Pretoria, and as a result, only data from 10 GPCs are being standardized at LC-LRFMME.

System Configuration Info. GPC System Config. Res. (Atm.) Hindcast Period Forecast Period Seoul Tier-2 T106/L21 1979-2007 2007.12- ECMWF Coupled T159/L62 1981-2005 2009.02- Exeter 1.875x1.25/L38 1989-2002 2009.09- Toulouse T63/L31 1993-2003 Tokyo T95/L40 1979-2008 2010.02- Melbourne T47/L17 1980-2006 2008.07- Washington T62/L64 1981-2004 2008.02- Moscow 1.125x1.40625/L28 1979-2003 Montreal 4 Models 1969-2004 Beijing T63/L16 1983-2004 Pretoria T.B.A. 각 GPC별 Configuration에 대한 테이블 입니다. Hindcast 자료는 일본과 유럽지역을 제외한 7개 GPC 자료를 확보하고 있으며, Forecast 자료는 표에서와 같이 유럽지역의 GPC 자료를 올해부터 수집하고 있습니다. This table represents the system configuration for each GPC. Hindcast data from 7 GPCs (not including Japan and Europe) are available, while forecast data are available from more GPCs, including the GPCs in Europe, which have made their data available since last year, as shown in the table.

www.wmolc.org/Data/System Configuration Information Detailed GPC System Information www.wmolc.org/Data/System Configuration Information 보다 자세한 GPC별 시스템 정보는 홈페이지에서도 다음과 같이 확인하실 수 있습니다. More detailed system information on the individual GPCs is available on our website.

LC-LRFMME Website http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries 보시는 그림은 장기예보 선도센터의 공식적인 홈페이지입니다. 현재 회원은 45개국 106명이 가입되어 있습니다. This is the main page of the WMO LC-LRFMME website, which currently has 106 members from 45 countries. More and more members are joining the website.

Membership Grades & Access Membership & Data Plot Membership Grades & Access Grade A (GPC staff) : Upload/Download; image plots Grade B (NMHS or RCC staff) : Download; image plots Grade C (Others) : Image plots 각 회원들은 3등급으로 나뉘어져 등급별 서비스를 받을 수 있는 권한이 조금씩 차이가 있습니다. 전 세계 GPC 담당자들은 업/다운로드 및 이미지 플롯을, 지역기후센터에서는 자료 다운로드 및 이미지 플롯을, 이외 대부분의 회원들은 이미지 플롯을 통해 다양한 정보를 제공받게 됩니다. 다운로드 기능은 수집된 7개 GPC만을 선택할 수 있고, 이미지 플롯은 보시는 그림과 같이 다양한 메뉴 선택을 통해 자료를 검색할 수 있습니다. 생산되는 각 자료들에 대한 정보들은 뒤에서 자세히 설명을 드리겠습니다. Members are classified into three grades and have different access rights according to their grade. GPC staff around the world may access the upload/download and image plot functions, while NHMS or RCC staff access is limited to download and image plot functions. Other members only have access to image plots. The download function allows users to download data from one of the 7 GPCs whose data the Centre collects. The image plot function allows users to search data through various menu selections including images. A more detailed description of each product follows.

Mean Sea Level Pressure Sea Surface Temperature LC-LRFMME Products 500hPa GPH 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature 이미지 플롯을 통해 제공되는 6개 기상자료입니다. These are the 6 weather parameters available on the image plot function. 500hPa Geopotential height 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature

LC-LRFMME Products 10 GPCs Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow, Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington Forthcoming: Pretoria Beijing ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal Moscow 각 기상 자료별로 총 10개의 GPC자료를 비교 확인이 가능합니다. Users can compare and confirm data from 10 GPCs by parameter. Seoul Tokyo Toulouse Washington

LC-LRFMME Products Period Monthly mean 3-month mean June July August JJA 이러한 각 기상자료는 월별뿐만 아니라 3개월 평균장으로 제공됩니다. These products are available for three months as well as one months.

LC-LRFMME Products Map Type Map Lat./Long. vs Time Stereographic East Asia South Asia Russia Australia North America South America Arbitrary region(s) Lat./Long. vs Time Stereographic 각 이미지들은 전지구 맵을 비롯하여 지역적인 맵핑이 가능하며, 특정 영역의 평균값의 시계열 그리고 반구 형태로 제공됩니다. Regional mapping as well as global mapping in available, in the form of time series for average values of a specific zone or hemisphere.

LC-LRFMME Products Consistency map Energetics SST plume Indices AO PNA, SOI, NOI, WNPMI, IMI, EAMI, EAWMI, WYI, RM2 AO 이외에도, 10개 GPC들 중 몇 개가 양/음의 편차를 보이는지도 알 수 있는 Consistency map, SST 예측결과, 북극진동지수(AO)를 비롯한 10개의 기후지수 정보와 전지구적으로 적분된 에너지의 수송 및 수렴 정보를 나타내는 18개 종류의 모수 정보가 있습니다. Other available products include consistency maps, which allow users to see how many of the CGPs show plus or minus deviations, SST forecast results, 10 climate indices including Arctic Oscillation and information on 18 parameters that represent transport and convergence of energy integrated to global scale.

Multi-Model Ensemble Plot Simple MME 현재 홈페이지를 통해서 제공되는 다중모델앙상블 예측 중의 하나인 Simple Composite 결과입니다. 각 기상변수, 멤버, 지역을 선택적으로 생산할 수 있습니다. Here is an example of a simple composite, one of the multi-model ensemble forecasts that are provided through the Centre’s website. Outputs can be customized for a specific meteorological variable, member, or region.

MME Prediction Bias-corrected ensemble mean Regular multiple regression Singular value decomposition Schedule WMO LC-LRFMME website availability : By 2010 Ensemble members: WMO GPCs Seoul, Tokyo, Montreal, Washington, Moscow, Beijing Exeter, Melbourne 현재 개발된 다중모델앙상블 예측기법입니다. 보시는 바와 같이, 오차가 보정된 앙상블 평균, 다중회귀상관, 고유치 분해기법을 적용하여 앙상블 예측을 수행하고 있다. 올해 말쯤에 홈페이지를 통해 결과물을 제공해드릴 수 있을 것으로 생각됩니다. 현재 앙상블 예측은 hindcast 자료가 제공된 8개의 멤버들로 구성되며, 향후 hindcast 자료가 확보되는 대로 앙상블 멤버수도 증가되어 더 나은 결 과물을 제공해 드릴 수 있을 것으로 생각됩니다. This is Centre’s multi-model ensemble prediction technique. As shown on this slide, ensemble forecasts at the Centre are conducted using bias-corrected ensemble means, regular multiple regression and singular value decomposition. We hope to provide these outputs through our website by the end of this year. At present, our ensemble prediction is composed of 8 members whose hindcast data we have. As more hindcast data become available, the number of ensembles will increase accordingly, which will likely entail better products.

Products of MME Biased-Corrected Ensemble Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition 앞에서 제시되었던 세 가지 앙상블 기법을 적용한 예측 결과물입니다. 500hPa 고도, 850hPa 기온, 강수량 자료에 대한 3개월 평균 편차장을 나타내고 있습니다. 각 앙상블 예측 기법에 따라 다양한 결과를 보여주고 있으며, 각 예측기법에 따른 검증결과는 개발 중에 있습니다. These are the results following the application of the three ensemble techniques discussed on the previous slide. The outputs show 3-month anomalies for 500hPa geopotential height, 850hPa temperature and precipitation. Outputs vary according to the ensemble technique used. Verification of the outputs for each technique is in progress.

Developing MME Global Multi-Model Ensemble Simple Ensemble Mean 1. Biased ensemble mean 2. Bias-corrected ensemble mean Linear Methods Development of Regional Multi-Model Ensemble Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition EOF-based Multiple Regression MME-SPPM2 이외에도, LC-LRFMME에서는 선형기법과 비선형기법에 따른 다양한 앙상블 기법들을 개발하려고 한다. Furthermore, the Centre plans to develop a wider range of ensemble techniques, including linear and nonlinear methods. Nonlinear Methods Artificial Neural Network Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Forecast Module

Activities of LC-LRFMME Support for epidemic control Support for RCOFs Winters of 2007 and 2008 Climate prediction for the African region WMO, IRI, SADC Drought Monitoring Centre WMO LC-LRFMME Spring 2009 PRESAO, GHACOF, FOCRAII Training 최근의 장기예보 선도센터의 활동들입니다. 각 지역기후포럼 활동에 참여하였으며, 아프리카와 아시아 지역 등의 교육을 수행하였습니다. These are the activities that the Centre has been implementing in recent years. We have taken part in regional climate outlook forum activities, and have provided training opportunities in Africa and Asia. Improvement of Meteorological Disaster Responsiveness for African Countries (May 2009) Climate Variability and Predictions in South Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Africa (June 2009)

Summary LC-LRFMME standardizes GPCs’ data to facilitate use by WMO Members and has already received requests from RCOFs; LC-LRFMME is working on developing multi-model ensemble prediction and is engaged in technology transfer and training for WMO members; LC-LRFMME is sure to prove a valuable asset to the long-range forecast community; LC-LRFMME helps increase resources available for disaster prevention and mitigation, and for better social-economic planning 요약입니다. 한국기상청과 미국기상청이 공동으로 설립한 WMO 장기예보 선도센터에서는 전세계의 우수한 장기예측자료를 수집하고 표준화하여 188개 WMO 회원국에 제공하고자 하고 있습니다. 또한 표준화된 자료를 활용하여 다중모델앙상블 예측과 같은 차세대 기후예측 기술을 향상시키고, 이와 관련된 기술이전과 교육을 수행하고 있습니다. 선도센터는 장기예보 커뮤니티에 가치 높은 정보를 제공하고, 특히 개도국을 지원함으로써 자연재해의 발생에서 생명과 재산을 보호하는데 이바지할 수 있을 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. To summarize: The WMO LC-LRFMME, jointly established by KMA and NCEP, collects and standardizes quality long-range forecasts from around the world, and seeks to provide these products to the 188 Members of WMO. The Centre is also working on developing next-generation climate prediction technologies such as multi-model ensemble prediction using standardized data, and is engaged in related technology transfer and training activities. The Centre provides valuable data to the long-range forecast community, and is expected to help protect life and property from natural hazards through its support activities for developing nations. www.themegallery.com

Contact For more information, please contact: Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration 45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu Seoul 156-720, Republic of KOREA Tel.:+82-2-2181-0476 Fax:+82-2-2181-0489 C.P.:+82-016-209-3364 E-mail : cl_pre@korea.kr Website : http://www.wmolc.org This is the WMO LC-LRFMME contact point information. www.themegallery.com

Thank you! WMO South Asian Climate Outlook Forum 13~15 Apr. 2010, Pune 디지털 자료 제공에 있어 각 GPC 즉, 국가별 자료 정책이 다르기 때문에, 자료 무상 제공에 대한 동의를 얻어내기가 쉽지 않습니다. WMO 장기예보 선도센터가 더 많은 자료를 제공할 수 있도록 지속적으로 노력 중에 있습니다. 감사합니다.