제 15 장 거시경제의 측정 PowerPoint® Slides by Can Erbil © 2005 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved

확장 순환도: 국민경제에 있어서 화폐의 흐름

국내총생산 국내총생산(Gross domestic product: GDP) 은 어떤 경제에서 한 해 동안에 생산되는 최종생산물 가치의 총계로 정의된다.

국내총생산의 계산 In this hypothetical economy consisting of three firms, GDP can be calculated in three different ways: Measuring GDP as the value of production of final goods and services, by summing each firm’s value added; measuring GDP as spending on domestically produced final goods and services, and measuring GDP as factor income earned from firms in the economy.

2004년 미국의 GDP: 두 가지 계산방법

실질 국내총생산과 명목 국내총생산 실질 국내총생산(Real GDP): 한 국민경제에서 일정 기간 동안에 생산된 최종생산물인 재화와 서비스의 가치를 기준연도의 가격을 사용하여 계산한 것이다. 명목 국내총생산(Nominal GDP): 한 국민경제에서 일정 기간 동안에 생산된 최종생산물인 재화와 서비스의 가치를 생산물이 생산된 해의 가격을 사용하여 계산한 것이다. 일인당 실질 국내총생산(Real GDP per capita) 이란 국내총생산을 인구수로 나눈 값으로 각 개인의 평균 실질 국내총생산에 해당한다. 그러나 이 지표 자체가 정확한 정부 목표는 아니다.

단순한 경제에서 GDP와 실질 GDP의 계산

명목 GDP와 실질 GDP

미국의 시대별 명목 GDP와 실질 GDP 간 차이 To illustrate the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP, this figure shows the percent change in both measures over successive decades within the United States. (Real GDP was calculated using chained 2000 dollars.) The years 1929–1939 show the effect of deflation on the difference between nominal and real GDP: U.S. nominal GDP in 1939 was 11% lower than in 1929, but U.S. aggregate output as measured by real GDP was nearly 10% higher. The remaining years show the effect of inflation on the difference between the two measures: relatively high growth of U.S. nominal GDP in the years 1969–1979 and 1979–1989 contrast with relatively low growth of U.S. real GDP during those same periods. Those years experienced high levels of inflation and a simultaneous slowdown in real GDP growth. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

미국의 각 인구집단 별 실업률: 2005년 1월 The overall unemployment rate in January 2005 was 5.2%. But underlying this average were wide variations in unemployment rates for different demographic groups: African-Americans had a much higher unemployment rate than whites, and young workers had much higher unemployment rates than older workers.

실질 GDP와 실업률간의 관계: 1949 ~ 2004년 The horizontal axis measures the annual growth rate of real GDP, the vertical axis measures the change in the unemployment rate over the previous year, and each dot represents one year over the period 1949–2004. The data show that there is typically a negative relationship between growth in the economy and the change in the rate of unemployment. The vertical dashed line is drawn at a value of 3.5%, the average growth rate of real GDP from 1949 to 2004. Points lying to the right of the vertical dashed line indicate that years of above-average growth were typically years of a falling unemployment rate. Points lying to the left show that years of below-average growth were typically years of a rising unemployment rate. The downward trend of the scatter points shows that there is, in general, a negative relationship between the real GDP growth rate and the change in the unemployment rate. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics.

물가지수와 물가수준 물가지수(price index) 는 정해진 시장바구니를 특정 연도에 구매하는데 드는 비용을 측정하되 기준연도에 100의 값을 갖도록 정규화시킨다.

시장바구니의 비용계산

2004년 CPI의 구성

소비자 물가지수: 1913 ~ 2004년 Since 1940 the CPI has risen steadily. But the annual % increases in recent years have been much smaller than those of the 1970s and early 1980s. (The vertical axis is measured in log scale so that equal % changes in the CPI appear the same.)

소비자물가지수, 생산자물가지수, GDP 디플레이터 As the figure shows, these three different measures of inflation usually move closely together. Each reveals a drastic acceleration in the inflation rate during the 1940s and the 1970s and a return to relative price stability in the 1990s.

coming attraction: Chapter 16: Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand The End of Chapter 15 coming attraction: Chapter 16: Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand