최현진 정경대학 정치외교학과 choihj@khu.ac.kr 국제정치론 2015 가을학기 제12주(1) 최현진 정경대학 정치외교학과 choihj@khu.ac.kr
제12주(1) 내전의 원인과 특징 2 체
1. 다르푸르 학살 (2003~2004) 체
Sudan & Darfur
Sudan Liberation Army (2003)
Janjaweed militias
Number of Deaths in Darfur, 2003-2004
Refugees
2. 내전의 원인
안보딜레마 국내적 무정부 상태 민족 간 안보딜레마 Offense > Defense 인종청소(Ethnic Cleansing) → 안보전략 대표 학자 Barry Posen Chaim Kauffman
독재정치와 민족차별 작은 규모의 최소승리연합 민족 차별 → 정치적 생존 민족 차별 → 내전 민족 통합 → 쿠데타 대표 학자 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Lars-Eric Cederman
천연자원과 기후변화
천연자원과 기후변화
“21st-century conflict and violence are a development problem that does not fit the 20th-century model” (World Bank 2011)
3. Chaim Kaufmann (1996) “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars”
Kaufmann (1996) The security dilemma is more likely to be severe in intra-state conflicts than in inter-state conflicts: In the absence of well-established border and military force, individuals are more vulnerable to attacks than states. Offense has advantage over defense. Individuals are highly vulnerable to first strike (offense) not only by organized military forces but also by local militias or gangs from neighborhoods. Security dilemma is greatest when members of different ethnic groups are intermixed in the same territory; each side has a strong incentive to kill or drive out enemy populations before the enemy does the same to it. “ethnic cleansing.”
Kaufmann (1996) Ethnic conflicts can end in only three ways: Complete victory of one side Temporary suppression of the conflict by third party military occupation Self-governance of separate communities (ethnic separation) Stable resolutions of ethnic conflicts are possible only when the opposing groups are demographically separated into mutually defensible regions. Cleansing and rescue imperatives disappear Security dilemma is mitigated Preemption → Deterrence