거시경제학의 자료 (The Data of Macroeconomics) 2 거시경제학의 자료 (The Data of Macroeconomics) This PowerPoint chapter contains in-class exercises requiring students to have calculators. To help motivate the chapter, it may be helpful to remind the students that much of macroeconomics---and this book---is devoted to understanding the behavior of aggregate output, prices, and unemployment. Much of Chapter 2 will be familiar to students who have taken an introductory economics course. Therefore, you might consider going over Chapter 2 fairly quickly. This would allow more class time for the subsequent chapters, which are more challenging. Instructors who wish to shorten the presentation might consider omitting : a couple of slides on GNP vs. GDP a slide on chain-weighted real GDP vs. constant dollar real GDP some of the in-class exercises (though I suggest you ask your students to try them within 8 hours of the lecture, to reinforce the concepts while the material is still fresh in their memory.) The slides on stocks vs. flows. Subsequent chapters do not refer to these concepts very much. There are hidden slides you may want to “unhide.” They show that the GDP deflator and CPI are, indeed, weighted averages of prices. If your students are comfortable with algebra, then this material might be helpful. However, it’s a bit technical, and doesn’t appear in the textbook, so I’ve hidden these slides--they won’t appear in the presentation unless you intentionally “unhide” them.

공부할 내용 가장 중요한 거시경제통계(macroeconomic statistics)의 의미와 측정방법: 국내총생산 (GDP) 소비자물가지수 (CPI) 실업률(The unemployment rate) These are three of the most important economic statistics. Policymakers and businesspersons use them to monitor the economy and formulate appropriate policies. Economists use them to develop and test theories about how the economy works. Because we’ll be learning many of these theories, it’s worth spending some time now to really understand what these statistics mean, and how they are measured. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

(expenditure = income) 국내총생산(GDP): 지출 및 소득 두 가지 정의: 국내에서 생산된 최종 재화와 서비스에 대한 총지출(total expenditure) 국내의 생산요소가 벌어들인 총소득(total income) Most students, having taken principles of economics, will have seen this definition and be familiar with it. It’s not worth spending a lot of time on. It might be worthwhile, however, to briefly review the factors of production. 구매자의 지출액은 곧 판매자의 소득이 되므로 지출과 소득은 일치한다. (expenditure = income) 2장 거시경제학의 자료

순환경로(The Circular Flow) 소득($) 노동 지출 ($) 가계 재화(빵) 기업 2장 거시경제학의 자료

부가가치(Value added) 정의: 한 기업의 부가가치(value added)는 그 기업의 산출물의 가치에서 그 기업이 생산과정에 사용한 중간재의 가치를 차감한 것이다. It might be useful here to remind students what “intermediate goods” are. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

각 생산단계에서 창출된 부가가치는 얼마이며 GDP는 얼마인가? 농부는 밀 1부셀을 생산하여 이를 제분업자에게 1달러에 판매하였다. 제분업자는 밀을 밀가루로 만들어 제빵업자에게 3달러에 판매하였다. 제빵업자는 밀가루를 이용하여 빵을 만들어 이를 기술자에게 6달러에 판매하였다. 기술자는 이 빵을 소비하였다. 각 생산단계에서 창출된 부가가치는 얼마이며 GDP는 얼마인가? When students compute GDP, they should assume that these are the only transactions in the economy. Lessons of this problem: GDP = value of final goods = sum of value at all stages of production We don’t include the value of intermediate goods in GDP because their value is already embodied in the value of the final goods. Answer: Each person’s value-added (VA) equals the value of what he/she produced minus the value of the intermediate inputs he/she started with. Farmer’s VA = $1 Miller’s VA = $3 Baker’s VA = $3 GDP = $6 Note that GDP = value of final good = sum of value-added at all stages of production. Even though this problem is highly simplified, its main lesson holds in the real world: the value of all final goods produced equals the sum of value-added in all stages of production of all goods. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

최종재, 부가가치, 및 국내총생산 GDP = 생산된 최종생산물의 가치 = 각 생산단계에서의 부가가치의 합계 최종생산물의 가치에는 이미 중간재의 가치를 포함하고 있으므로, 중간재와 최종재를 GDP에 포함시키면 이중계산(double-counting)을 초래한다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

GDP의 지출 구성요소 소비(consumption) 투자(investment) 정부지출(government spending) 순수출(net exports) 2장 거시경제학의 자료

소비(C) 구성항목: 정의: 가계가 구입한 모든 재화와 서비스의 가치 내구재 정의: 가계가 구입한 모든 재화와 서비스의 가치 구성항목: 내구재 (durable goods) 예: 자동차, 가전제품 비내구재 (nondurable goods) 예: 식품, 의류 서비스(services) 예: 드라이 크리닝, 항공여행 A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. More on this in a few moments, when we get to Investment. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). 2장 거시경제학의 자료

미국의 소비, 2005 서비스 비내구재 내구재 소비 10억불 $8,745.7 70.0% 5,154.9 2,564.4 GDP에서 차지하는 비중 10억불 $8,745.7 70.0% 5,154.9 2,564.4 1,026.5 41.3 20.5 8.2 source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce http://www.bea.gov 2장 거시경제학의 자료

투자(I) 정의 1: (생산요소인) 자본에 대한 지출 정의 2: 미래의 사용을 위해 구입된 재화에 대한 지출 항목: 정의 2: 미래의 사용을 위해 구입된 재화에 대한 지출 항목: 기업고정투자(business fixed investment) 기업들이 재화와 서비스의 생산에 사용하게 될 공장과 설비에 대한 지출 주택고정투자(residential fixed investment) 가계 혹은 주택소유주의 주택에 대한 지출 재고투자(inventory investment) 기업재고량의 가치 증감 In definition #1, note that aggregate investment equals total spending on newly produced capital goods. (If I pay $1000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m doing $1000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing $1000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate investment.) The housing issue A consumer’s spending on a new house counts under investment, not consumption. A tenant’s spending on rent counts under services -- rent is considered spending on “housing services.” So what happens if a renter buys the house she had been renting? Conceptually, consumption should remain unchanged: just because she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing services as before. In national income accounting, (the services category of) consumption includes the imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing. To help students keep all this straight, you might suggest that they think of a house as a piece of capital which is used to produce a consumer service, which we might call “housing services”. Thus, spending on the house counts in “investment”, and the value of the housing services that the house provides counts under “consumption” (regardless of whether the housing services are being consumed by the owner of the house or a tenant). Inventories If total inventories are $10 billion at the beginning of the year, and $12 billion at the end, then inventory investment equals $2 billion for the year. Note that inventory investment can be negative (which means inventories fell over the year). 2장 거시경제학의 자료

미국의 투자, 2005 재고투자 주택투자 기업투자 투자 10억불 $2,105.0 16.9% 18.9 756.3 1,329.8 GDP에서 차지하는 비중 10억불 $2,105.0 16.9% 18.9 756.3 1,329.8 0.2 6.1 10.6 source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce http://www.bea.gov 2장 거시경제학의 자료

투자 vs. 자본 Note: 투자는 신규자본에 대한 지출을 의미 예제 (감가상각은 없다고 가정): 2006년 1월 1일: 어떤 경제의 자본규모가 5000억불이고, 2006년 동안: 투자가 600억불 이루어졌다면, 2007년 1월 1일: 경제의 자본규모는 5600억불이 된다. If you teach the stocks vs. flows concepts, this is a good example of the difference. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

저량 vs. 유량 - 예 저량(stock) 유량(flow) 개인의 재산(wealth) 개인의 연간저축 (annual saving) 대졸자의 수 올해 신규대졸자의 수 Point out that a specific quantity of a flow variable only makes sense if you know the size of the time unit. If someone tells you her salary is $5000 but does not say whether it is “per month” or “per year” or otherwise, then you’d have no idea what her salary really is. A pitfall with flow variables is that many of them have a very standard time unit (e.g., per year). Therefore, people often omit the time unit: “John’s salary is $50,000.” And omitting the time unit makes it easy to forget that John’s salary is a flow variable, not a stock. Another point: It is often the case that a flow variable measures the rate of change in a corresponding stock variable, as the examples on this slide (and the investment/capital example) make clear. 정부부채(debt) 정부예산적자 (budget deficit) 2장 거시경제학의 자료

예제: 저량 혹은 유량? 신용카드 사용내역서의 사용잔액 수업시간 외에 경제학을 공부한 양 CD 보유량 인플레이션율 실업률 You can use this slide to get some class participation. I suggest you display the entire slide, give students a few moments to formulate their answers, and then ask for volunteers. Doing so results in wider participation than if you ask for someone to volunteer the answer immediately after displaying each item on the list. Here are the answers, and explanations: The balance on your credit card statement is a stock. (A corresponding flow would be the amount of new purchases on your credit card statement.) How much you study is a flow. The statement “I study 10 hours” is only meaningful if we know the time period – whether 10 years per day, per week, per month, etc. The size of your compact disc collection is a stock. (A corresponding flow would be how many CDs you buy per month.) The inflation rate is a flow: we say “prices are increasing by 3.2% per year” or “by 0.4% per month”. The unemployment rate is a stock: It’s the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the workforce. In contrast, the number of newly unemployed people per month would be a flow. Note: Students have not yet seen official definitions of the inflation and unemployment rates. However, it is likely they are familiar with these terms, either from their introductory economics course or from reading the newspaper. Note: The stocks vs. flows concept is not mentioned very much in the subsequent chapters. If you do not want your students to forget it, then a good idea would be to do the following: As subsequent chapters introduce new variables, ask students whether each new variable is a stock or a flow. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

정부지출 (G) 정부가 재화와 서비스에 지출한 모든 것을 정부지출에 포함한다. 이전지출(transfer payments)은 재화와 서비스에 대한 지출이 아니므로 정부지출에서 제외된다. (예: 실업보험급여) Transfer payments are included in “government outlays,” but not in government spending. People who receive transfer payments use these funds to pay for their consumption. Thus, we avoid double-counting by excluding transfer payments from G. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

미국의 정부지출, 2005 10억불 GDP에서 차지하는 비중 정부지출 $2,362.9 18.9% 연방정부 877.7 1,485.2 587.1 290.6 7.0 11.9 4.7 2.3 비 국방분야 국방분야 source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce http://www.bea.gov 주 및 지방 정부 2장 거시경제학의 자료

순수출: NX = EX – IM 정의: 총수출액(EX) - 총수입액(IM) source: FRED Database, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Before showing the data graph, the following explanation might be helpful: Remember, GDP is the value of spending on our country’s output of goods & services. Exports represent foreign spending on our country’s output, so we include exports. Imports represent the portion of domestic spending (C, I, and G) that goes to foreign goods and services, so we subtract off imports. NX, therefore, equals net spending by the foreign sector on domestically produced goods & services.

중요한 항등식(identity) Y = C + I + G + NX 총지출 총산출물의 가치 2장 거시경제학의 자료 A few slides ago, we defined GDP as the total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods and services (as well as total income). We can also define GDP as (the value of) aggregate output, not just spending on output. An identity is an equation that always holds because of the way the variables are defined. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

생각꺼리: 만일 한 기업이 1천만불 어치의 최종재를 생산하여 9백만불 어치만 판매하였다면, 지출액 = 생산액 이라는 항등식에 위배되는 것일까? If you do not wish to pose this as a question, you can “hide” this slide and skip right to the next one, which simply gives students the information. Suggestion (applies generally, not just here): When you pose a question like this to your class, don’t ask for students to volunteer their answers right away. Instead, tell them to think about it for a minute and write their answer down on paper. Then, ask for volunteers (or call on students at random). Giving students this extra minute will increase the quality of participation as well as the number of students who participate. Correct answer to the question: Unsold output adds to inventory, and thus counts as inventory investment – whether intentional or unplanned. Thus, it’s as if a firm “purchased” its own inventory accumulation. Here’s where the “goods purchased for future use” definition of investment is handy: When firms add newly produced goods to their inventory, the “future use” of those goods, of course, is future sales. Note, also, that inventory investment counts intentional as well as unplanned inventory changes. Thus, when firms sell fewer units than planned, the unsold units go into inventory and are counted as inventory investment. This explains why “output = expenditure” -- the value of unsold output is counted under inventory investment, just as if the firm “purchased” its own output. Remember, the definition of investment is goods bought for future use. With inventory investment, that future use is to give the firm the ability in the future to sell more than its output. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

왜 생산액 = 지출액이 될까? 팔리지 않은 산출물은 재고에 포함되며, 재고투자(inventory investment)로 계산된다. 이는 이 재고의 증가가 의도된 것이든 의도되지 않은 것이든 상관이 없다. 결과적으로, 기업들이 팔리지 않은 산출물을 구입한다는 가정을 하는 것이다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

GDP: 중요하고 다양한 개념들 우리는 지금까지 GDP는 다음과 같은 것들을 측정한다는 것을 살펴보았다. 총소득(total income) 총산출(total output) 총지출(total expenditure) 최종재의 각 생산단계에서의 부가가치의 합계(the sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goods) This is why economists often use the terms income, output, expenditure, and GDP interchangeably. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

GNP vs. GDP 국민총소득(GNP): (생산장소에 상관없이) 한 국가의 생산요소가 벌어들인 총소득 (GNP – GDP) = (해외로부터 벌어들인 요소소득) – (해외로 지불한 요소소득) Emphasize that the difference b/w GDP and GNP boils down to two things: location of the economic activity, and ownership (domestic vs. foreign) of the factors of production. From the perspective of the U.S., factor payments from abroad includes things like wages earned by U.S. citizens working abroad profits earned by U.S.-owned businesses located abroad income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) generated from the foreign assets owned by U.S. citizens Factor payments to abroad includes things like wages earned by foreign workers in the U.S. profits earned by foreign-owned businesses located in the U.S. income (interest, dividends, rent, etc) that foreigners earn on U.S. assets Chapter 3 introduces factor markets and factor prices. Unless you’ve already covered that material, it might be worth mentioning to your students that factor payments are simply payments to the factors of production, for example, the wages earned by labor. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

당신 국가에서는, GDP와 GNP 중에 어느 것이 더 큰 것을 원하는가? 토론꺼리: 당신 국가에서는, GDP와 GNP 중에 어느 것이 더 큰 것을 원하는가? 그 이유는? This issue is subjective, and the question is intended to get students to think a little deeper about the difference between GNP and GDP. Of course, there is no single correct answer. Some students offer this response: It’s better to have GNP > GDP, because it means our nation’s income is greater than the value of what we are producing domestically. If, instead, GDP > GNP, then a portion of the income generated in our country is going to people in other countries, so there’s less income left over for us to enjoy. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

(GNP – GDP)가 GDP에서 차지하는 비중, 2002년 For the U.S., GDP and GNP are very close. Thus, students may not realize why we bother teaching them the difference. The data on this slide makes clear that the difference is very important for many countries. Source: World Bank. How to interpret the numbers in this table: In Canada, GNP is 1.9% smaller than GDP. This sounds like a tiny number, but it means that about 2% of all the income generated in Canada is taken away and paid to foreigners. In Angola, about 14% of the value of domestic production is paid to foreigners. Kuwait’s GNP is 9.5% bigger than its GDP. This means that the income earned by the citizens of Kuwait is 9.5% larger than the value of production occurring within Kuwait’s borders. Teaching suggestion: Point out a few countries with positive numbers. Ask your students to take a moment to think of possible reasons why GNP might exceed GDP in a country, and write them down. Point out a few countries with negative numbers. Ask your students to take a moment to think of possible reasons why a country’s GDP might be bigger than its GNP, and write them down. After students have had a chance to think of some reasons, ask for volunteers. (Better yet, have them pair up and compare answers with a classmate before volunteering their answers to the class.) Reasons why GNP may exceed GDP: Country has done a lot of lending or investment overseas and is earning lots of income from these foreign investments (income on nationally-owned capital located abroad). Take Kuwait. This tiny country earns (from oil revenue) more than it spends; the difference is invested (in the layperson’s sense of the term investment) in foreign assets, such as stocks and real estate. Thus, Kuwait has a lot of foreign-owned capital that generates income. This income comes back to Kuwait, making its GNP bigger than its GDP. A significant number of citizens have left the country to work overseas (their income is counted in GNP, not GDP). Reasons why GDP may exceed GNP: - Country has done a lot of borrowing from abroad, or foreigners have done a lot of investment in the country (income earned by foreign-owned domestically-located capital). This is most likely why Mexico’s GDP > GNP. - Country has a large immigrant labor force 2장 거시경제학의 자료

실질 GDP vs. 명목 GDP GDP란 생산된 모든 최종 재화와 서비스의 가치이다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

연습문제, part 1 각 년도의 명목 GDP를 계산하여라. 각 년도의 실질 GDP를 계산하여라. 2006 2007 2008 P Q 상품 A $30 900 $31 1,000 $36 1,050 상품 B $100 192 $102 200 205 This slide (and a few of the following ones) contain exercises that you can have your students do in class for immediate reinforcement of the material. This problem requires calculators. If most of your students do not have calculators, you might “hide” this slide and instead pass out a printout of it for a homework exercise. Tell students that if they don’t have Or: just have them write down the expressions that they would enter into a calculator if they had calculators, i.e. Nominal GDP in 2001 = 30*900 + 100*192. 각 년도의 명목 GDP를 계산하여라. 각 년도의 실질 GDP를 계산하여라. (단, 기준년도는 2006년) 2장 거시경제학의 자료

연습문제 풀이, part 1 명목 GDP 해당년도의 P와 Q를 곱한다 2006: $46,200 = $30  900 + $100  192 2007: $51,400 2008: $58,300 실질 GDP 2006년도의 P와 해당년도의 Q를 곱한다 2006: $46,200 2007: $50,000 2008: $52,000 = $30  1050 + $100  205 2장 거시경제학의 자료

실질 GDP는 인플레이션을 조정한 것 명목 GDP의 변동 사유: 가격의 변동 산출량의 변동 Suppose from 2006 to 2007, nominal GDP rises by 10%. Some of this growth could be due to price increases, because an increase in the price of output causes an increase in the value of output, even if the real quantity remains the same. Hence, to control for inflation, we use real GDP. Remember, real GDP is the value of output using constant base-year prices. If real GDP grows by 6% from 2006 to 2007, we can be sure that all of this growth is due to an increase in the economy’s actual production of goods and services, because the same prices are used to construct real GDP in 2006 and 2007. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

미국의 명목 및 실질 GDP, 1950–2006 실질 GDP (2000년 가격) 명목 GDP 2장 거시경제학의 자료 Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Notice that the brown line (nominal GDP) is steeper than the blue line. That’s because prices generally rise over time. So, nominal GDP grows at a faster rate than real GDP. If you’re anal like me, you might ask students what is the significance of the two lines crossing in 2000. Answer: 2000 is the base year for this real GDP data, so RGDP = NGDP in 2000 only. Before 2000, RGDP > NGDP, while after 2000, RGDP < NGDP. This is intuitive if you think about it for a minute: Take 1970. When the economy’s output of 1970 is measured in the (then) current prices, GDP is about $1 trillion. Between 1970 and 2000, most prices have risen. Hence, if you value the country’s 1970 using the higher year-2000 prices (to get real GDP), you get a bigger value than if you measure 1970’s output using 1970 prices (nominal GDP). This explains why real GDP is larger than nominal GDP in 1970 (as in most or all years before the base year). 2장 거시경제학의 자료

GDP 디플레이터(Deflator) 명목 GDP X GDP 디플레이터 = 100 실질 GDP 인플레이션율(the inflation rate)이란 전반적인 물가수준의 상승률이다. 물가수준의 측정치 중의 하나는 GDP 디플레이터로서, 다음과 같이 정의된다. After revealing the first bullet point, mention that there are several different measures of the overall price level. Your students are probably familiar with one of them---the Consumer Price Index, which will be covered shortly. For now, though, we learn about a different one <reveal next bullet point>, the GDP deflator. The GDP deflator is so named because it is used to “deflate” (remove the effects of inflation from) GDP and other economic variables. 명목 GDP GDP 디플레이터 = 100 X 실질 GDP 2장 거시경제학의 자료

GDP 디플레이터를 이용하여 2006 – 2007년과 2007 - 2008년의 인플레이션율을 계산하여라. 연습문제, part 2 명목 GDP 실질 GDP GDP 디플레이터 인플레이션율 2006 $46,200 n.a. 2007 51,400 50,000 2008 58,300 52,000 각 연도의 GDP 디플레이터를 계산하여라. GDP 디플레이터를 이용하여 2006 – 2007년과 2007 - 2008년의 인플레이션율을 계산하여라. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

연습문제 풀이, part 2 명목 GDP 실질 GDP GDP 디플레이터 2006 $46,200 100.0 n.a. 2007 인플레이션율 2006 $46,200 100.0 n.a. 2007 51,400 50,000 102.8 2.8% 2008 58,300 52,000 112.1 9.1% 2장 거시경제학의 자료

백분율 변화에 관한 두 가지 계산 요령 1. 어떤 두 변수 X와 Y에 대하여, (X  Y )의 백분율 변화  X의 백분율 변화 + Y의 백분율 변화 These handy arithmetic tricks will be useful in many different contexts later in this book. For example, in the Quantity Theory of Money in chapter 4, they help us understand how the Quantity Equation, MV = PY, gives us a relation between the rates of inflation, money growth, and GDP growth. The example on this slide uses wage income = (hourly wage) x (number of hours worked) Another example would be revenue = price x quantity Students will see many more examples later in the textbook. 예: 시간당 임금(X)이 5% 상승하고 노동시간(Y)을 7% 더 늘린다면, 임금(XY)은 대략 12% 증가한다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

백분율 변화에 관한 두 가지 계산 요령 2. X/Y 의 백분율 변화  X 의 백분율 변화  Y 의 백분율 변화 Again, we will see uses for this in many different contexts later in the textbook. For example, if your wage rises 10% while prices rise 6%, then your real wage – the purchasing power of your wage – rises by about 4%, because real wage = (nominal wage)/(price level) 예: GDP 디플레이터 = 100  NGDP/RGDP 명목GDP가 9% 증가하고 실질GDP가 4% 증가하였다면, 인플레이션율은 대략 5% 상승한다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

연쇄 가중 실질 GDP 시간이 흘러감에 따라, 상대가격이 변화하므로 기준년도를 주기적으로 갱신하여야 한다. 즉, 연쇄가중(chain-weighted) 실질 GDP는 기준년도를 매년 갱신함으로써, 불변가격 실질 GDP보다 더욱 정확한 측정치이다. 본서에서는 불변가격 실질 GDP를 사용하고 있는데, 그 이유로는: 두 측정치는 매우 상관관계가 높으며, 불변가격 실질 GDP가 계산하기 쉽기 때문이다. Since constant-price GDP is easier to understand and compute, and because the two measures of real GDP are so highly correlated, this textbook emphasizes the constant-price version of real GDP. However, if this topic is important to you and your students, you should have them carefully read page 24, and give them one or two exercises requiring students to computer or compare constant-price and chain-weighted real GDP. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

소비자 물가지수(CPI) 전반적인 물가수준의 측정치 노동통계국(the Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS)에서 발표 용도: 대표적인 가계의 생계비 변동을 추적한다. 인플레이션을 반영하는 계약서의 작성에 활용한다. 과거와 현재의 화폐가치를 비교할 수 있게 해준다. Regarding the comparison of dollar figures from different years: If we want to know whether the average college graduate today is better off than the average college graduate of 1975, we can’t simply compare the nominal salaries, because the cost of living is so much higher now than in 1975. We can use the CPI to express the 1975 in “current dollars”, i.e. see what it would be worth at today’s prices. Also: when the price of oil (and hence gasoline) shot up in 2000, some in the news reported that oil prices were even higher than in the 1970s. This was true, but only in nominal terms. If you use the CPI to adjust for inflation, the highest oil price in 2000 is still substantially less than the highest oil prices of the 1970s. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

노동통계국이 CPI를 추계하는 방법 1. 전형적인 소비자가 구입하는 상품 바스켓의 구성을 조사한다. 1. 전형적인 소비자가 구입하는 상품 바스켓의 구성을 조사한다. 2. 매월 바스켓 내의 상품가격을 수집하여 비용을 계산한다. 3. 특정월의 CPI는 다음과 같다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

예제: CPI의 계산 가격: 매해 다음의 값들을 계산한다. 피자 CD 바스켓 비용 2002 $10 $15 2002 $10 $15 2003 $11 $15 2004 $12 $16 2005 $13 $15 매해 다음의 값들을 계산한다. 바스켓 비용 CPI (2002년을 기준년도로 사용) 전년도 대비 물가상승률 From 2002 to 2003, it’s not obvious that the inflation rate will be positive (that the basket’s cost will increase): the price of pizza rises by $1, the price of CDs falls by $1. However, since the basket contains twice as many pizzas as CDs, a given change in the price of pizza will have a bigger impact on the basket’s cost (and CPI) than the same sized price change in CDs. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

풀이: 바스켓 물가 비용 CPI 상승률 2002 $350 100.0 n.a. 2003 370 105.7 5.7% 바스켓 물가 비용 CPI 상승률 2002 $350 100.0 n.a. 2003 370 105.7 5.7% 2004 400 114.3 8.1% 2005 410 117.1 2.5% 2장 거시경제학의 자료

CPI 바스켓의 구성 Each number is the percent of the “typical” household’s total expenditure. source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Ask students for examples of how the breakdown of their own expenditure differs from that of the typical household shown here. Then, ask students how the typical elderly person’s expenditure might differ from that shown here. (This is relevant because the CPI is used to give Social Security COLAs to the elderly; however, the elderly spend a much larger fraction of their income on medical care, a category in which prices grow much faster than the CPI.) The website listed above also gives a very fine disaggregation of each category, which enables students to compare their own spending on compact discs, beer, or cell phones to that of the “typical” household. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

CPI가 물가상승률을 과대평가하는 이유 대체효과에 의한 오류: CPI는 고정된 가중치를 사용하므로 소비자들이 상대적으로 가격이 하락한 상품으로 대체하는 현상을 반영하지 못한다. 새로운 상품의 도입: 새로운 상품이 도입되면 소비자들의 후생이 개선되고 화폐의 실질가치가 상승되는 효과가 발생하지만 고정된 가중치를 사용하는 CPI는 이러한 현상을 반영하지 못한다. 측정되지 않은 품질변화: 품질향상은 화폐의 가치를 증가시켜주지만 가격에 충분히 반영되지 않는 경우가 많다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

CPI 측정상 오류의 크기 1995년 미국의 상원재정위원회가 지명한 5명의 저명한 전문가들이 추정한 바에 따르면, CPI는 물가상승률을 매해 약 1.1% 과대평가하고 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 따라서 노동통계국은 그 오류를 줄이기 위한 조정을 시작하였다. 현재, CPI 측정상의 오류는 매해 1%를 밑도는 것으로 여겨지고 있다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

CPI vs. GDP 디플레이터 자본재의 가격 수입된 소비재의 가격 상품 바스켓 (국내에서 생산되었다면) GDP에 포함된다. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

U.S.에서의 두 가지 물가상승률 측정치 12개월 이전 대비 변동률 2장 거시경제학의 자료 source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ In 1980, the CPI increased much faster than the GDP deflator. Ask students if they can offer a possible explanation. In 1955, the CPI showed slightly negative inflation, while the GDP deflator showed positive inflation. Ask students for possible explanations. (For possible answers, just refer to previous slide.) 2장 거시경제학의 자료

인구의 분류 취업자(employed) 보수를 받고 일하고 있는 자 실업자(unemployed) 실직상태에 있지만 직장을 구하고 있는 자 경제활동인구(labor force) 상품 생산에 활용할 수 있는 노동인구로서 취업자와 실업자를 합계한 값 비경제활동인구(not in the labor force) 실직상태에 있으면서 직장을 구하고 있지 않은 자 2장 거시경제학의 자료

노동력에 관한 두 가지 중요한 개념 100 ´ = 경제활동인구 실업자 실업률 실업률(unemployment rate) 경제활동인구에서 실업자가 차지하는 비중 경제활동참가율(labor force participation rate) 성인인구에서 경제활동인구가 차지하는 비중 100 ´ = 경제활동인구 실업자 실업률 100 ´ = 성인인구 경제활동인구 경제활동참가율 2장 거시경제학의 자료

2장 거시경제학의 자료

풀이: 데이터: E = 144.4, U = 7.0, POP = 228.8 경제활동인구 L = E +U = 144.4 + 7 = 151.4 비경제활동인구 NILF = POP – L = 228.8 – 151.4 = 77.4 실업률 U/L x 100% = (7/151.4) x 100% = 4.6% 경제활동참가율 L/POP x 100% = (151.4/228.8) x 100% = 66.2% 2장 거시경제학의 자료

기업조사(establishment survey) BLS는 기업에 대한 설문지를 통하여 보수를 받고 있는 노동자의 수를 조사하여 2차 고용통계자료를 작성하고 있다. 두 가지 통계 모두 완벽하지는 않으며, 가끔 다음과 같은 이유로 차이가 발생한다: 자가고용(self-employed)된 사람들에 대한 처리 본 조사에 포함되지 않은 신규 기업 표본 데이터로부터 추론된 인구수에 대한 기술적 문제 This slide and the next correspond to new material in the 6th edition on the Establishment Survey. See pp.38-39. The material on Okun’s Law, which formerly appeared at this point in Chapter 2, has been moved to Chapter 9, section 9-1. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

두 가지 고용통계의 비교 12개월 이전 대비 변화율 2장 거시경제학의 자료 Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ This graph shows the percentage change in total U.S. non-farm employment from 12 months earlier (based on monthly, seasonally-adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics), from two surveys: The household survey, which is used to generate the widely-known unemployment rate data, and the establishment survey. Pp.38-39 discusses the establishment survey in detail and contrasts it with the household survey to help explain the divergences. 2장 거시경제학의 자료

요약 1. 국내총생산(GDP)은 한 경제의 재화와 서비스의 산출에 대한 총소득과 총지출을 측정한다. 2. 명목 GDP는 산출물을 현재가격으로 평가한다; 실질 GDP는 산출물을 불변가격으로 평가한다. 산출물의 변화는 두 가지 통계치 모두에 영향을 미치지만, 가격의 변화는 명목 GDP에만 영향을 미친다. 3. GDP는 소비, 투자, 정부구매, 및 순수출의 합계이다. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics slide 56

요약 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 전형적인 소비자에 의해서 구입되는 고정된 상품 바스켓의 가격으로 측정된다. 4. 전반적인 물가수준은 다음의 두 가지 방법으로 측정된다. 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 전형적인 소비자에 의해서 구입되는 고정된 상품 바스켓의 가격으로 측정된다. GDP 디플레이터는 명목 GDP에 대한 실질 GDP의 비율이다. 5. 실업률은 경제활동인구 중에서 고용되지 않은 사람들의 비율이다. CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics slide 57