Obama chooses 'peaceful solutions' in address on Syria, The Hill Sep 10,  President Obama on Tuesday said he would seek to avoid a military strike as the crisis over Syria’s chemical weapons turned dramatically away from Congress and toward negotiations at the United Nations.  “I have a deeply held preference for peaceful solutions,” Obama said in a prime-time address from the White House’s East Room.  But he made it clear that instead of seeking authorization from Congress for a strike — which the House and Senate seemed unlikely to approve — he would pursue a diplomatic solution through the United Nations.

Personal and Party Change? 2 John Kerry in 1971 Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) John Kerry (Secretary of State) Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)

“Vote on Syria Sets Up Foreign Policy Clash Between 2 Wings of GOP” The New York Times, Sep 2,  The Congressional vote on whether to strike Syria will offer the best insight yet on which wing of the Republican Party — the traditional hawks, or a growing bloc of noninterventionists — has the advantage in the fierce internal debates over foreign policy that have been taking place all the year.  Republican divisions on national security have flared over the use of drones, aid to Egypt, and the surveillance practices of the National Security Agency, and the tensions have played out publicly in battles between Senator John McCain of Arizona, a former Navy pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war, and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, a libertarian- leaning freshman. Mr. McCain memorably called Mr. Paul and his compatriots “wacko birds,” and Mr. Paul suggested that hawks like Mr. McCain were “moss covered.”  But those intermittent spats could pale in comparison with the fight over whether to attack Syria, an issue on which Mr. McCain, a former Republican presidential candidate, and Mr. Paul, a possible contender in 2016, will almost certainly be the leading spokesmen for their party’s two wings.  Mr. Paul on Sunday made clear his opposition to Mr. Obama’s proposal, taking to Twitter and the talk shows to taunt Secretary of State John Kerry.  “John Kerry is, you know, he’s famous for saying, you know, how can you ask a man to be the last one to die for a mistake?” Mr. Paul said. “I would ask John Kerry, how can you ask a man to be the first one to die for a mistake?”

2012 Elections: National Results 4

2012 Elections: County Results 5

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Obama 대통령의 재선요인 I 7 1. “Economic Voting” vs. “Demographic Advantage”  1984 년 Reagan 재선과 차이  Why Obama still popular?  미국사회의 양극화  오바마 개인의 인기  전임대통령 책임  Non-white 유권자들의 급증  70:30 차이로 비백인층에서 오바마 압승  남부경합주의 새로운 변화

Exit Poll, 2012 ( 경제상황 VS. 실정책임 ) 8

“No More Trickle-Down?” “Winner-Take-All” Economy & Politics? The Richest 1 % Share of National Income, The Richest 1 % Share of National Income, Mid ‘70s vs. 2000

TOP 10 States with the Largest Latino Populations (Total # of Electoral College = 226) 7 out of 10 carried by Obama in 2012 vs. GOP “Soul Searching” 10

Obama 대통령의 재선요인 II 2. Style vs. Substance vs. SNS  Likability 변수  Campaign 의 중요성  Referendum vs. Choice  “Do not let your opponent define your candidacy too long!”  Primary vs. General  공화당 후보경선방식의 실패  인터넷, SNS, TV 등의 영향력 11

Obama 대통령의 재선요인 III 3. Foreign Policy & Hurricane  공화당 외교정책상의 우위상실  “Bin Laden is Dead, GM is Alive!”  “It’s the economy, stupid” election  Sandy as the “October Surprise”  The Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1962 midterm elections  Osama Bin Laden tape in the 2004 presidential elections  Obama as a “crisis manager”  Momentum lost for Romney 12 “Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?” Prof. Larry Sabato (UVA Center for Politics) “Obama 290 vs. Romney 248”

The 2012 Election & “Critical Election”? 13 현직대통령들의 재선압승을 통한 미국정치의 새판짜기  1828/1832 년 선거 & Andrew Jackson  Jacksonian Democracy (Mass Democracy) 도래  1932/1936 년 선거 & Franklin Delano Roosevelt  New Deal Era (Active Government) 개막  1980/1984 년 선거 & Ronald Reagan  Reagan Revolution (Small Government) 전환  2008/2012 년 선거 & Barack Obama?  Skowronek’s comments

14 Electoral Mandate? Critical Election? Politics of Reconstruction?

112 th Senate ( ) = 51 DEM vs. 47 GOP vs. 2 IND 113 th Senate ( ) = 53 DEM vs. 45 GOP vs. 2 IND GOP = ME, IN lost vs. DEM = IN, CT won 15

112 th Congress ( ) = 242 GOP vs. 193 DEM 113 th Congress ( ) = 234 GOP vs. 201 DEM 16

Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 I 17  “Compromise” as a Mandate  Fiscal cliff 이슈  Immigration reform 과제  경제회복과 재정적자  차기 국무장관 ? Bernanke 연임 (2014 년 1 월 )?  “6 th year itch” in American political history  2014 년 변수 ( 년이 중요 )  2016 년 대선전망 (open seat race, again: 2000, 2008, 2016 년 )  민주당 : Hillary Clinton 출마여부가 가장 큰 변수  공화당 : “Big Idea” Election?

Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 II 18  US-China Relations  재선대통령의 우호적인 대중국관계 (Clinton, Bush, Obama)  Not only inter-branch but also inter-chamber relationship 의회 / 행정부 관계뿐 아니라 상원 / 하원의 관계도 중요 “position taking” strategy vs. “policy change” voting  양국 모두 국내 정치 / 경제적 불만과 불안요소들을 어떻게 control 할 것인가가 관건 환율전쟁 변수 영토분쟁 변수

Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 III 19  US-North Korea Relations  기본적으로 strategic ignorance/lurching from crisis to crisis  4*5 = 20 즉 1992 년 김영삼 /Clinton 이래 20 년 만에 양국의 새 정부가 같은 해에 출범  새 정권 초기가 중요한데 (100days), 이 과정에서 새로운 한국정부가 대북관계를 주도적 / 전향적으로 틀려고 할 때 American Grand Strategy 방향과 어떻게 연결될 것인지가 관건 Grand bargaining 에 대한 미국의회의 지지가 필수 1994 년 Agreed Framework 당시 분점정부상황에서 북미합의가 제대로 이행되지 못했던 측면에 대한 고찰이 필요